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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:39) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to ATL 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.75 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model