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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(10:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to ATL 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.50 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 50, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model