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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 79

Tennessee Titans 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(11:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to ATL 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-E.Weems to ATL 42 for 12 yards (57-J.Staples). TEN-25-B.Wreh-Wilson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.26 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 36, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP