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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 1

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 83-J.Tamme INTERCEPTED by 54-A.Williamson (28-M.Huff) at TEN -4. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +3.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 1, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model