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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:25) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to TEN 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.46 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -3.23 EP
KICK -2.15 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP