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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:33) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to TEN 22, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.75 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP