4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(2:50) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to ATL 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.80 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP