4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 41

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Jones (30-J.McCourty).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.97 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model