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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 2-D.Butler punts 51 yards to BAL 26, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 10-J.Ross. PENALTY on BAL-25-T.Walker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 26.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.39 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP