4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
BAL Away

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Monday 2015-10-26 · 20:30 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

BAL
23.4%
ARI
76.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Carson Palmer (ARI): +0.305 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI defense: -0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • BAL offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 19
–
ARI 30
Projected margin: ARI by 11 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

BAL

Terrence Brooks S Out Thumb
Breshad Perriman WR Out Knee
Maxx Williams TE Out Knee
Asa Jackson CB Questionable Thigh
Kendrick Lewis S Questionable Knee
Lardarius Webb CB Questionable Thigh
Chris Canty DE Probable Calf
Elvis Dumervil LB Probable Not Injury Related
Daryl Smith LB Probable Not Injury Related
Darren Waller WR Probable Concussion
Marshal Yanda G Probable Ankle

ARI

Darren Fells TE Out Shoulder
Alex Okafor LB Out Calf
John Brown WR Questionable Hamstring
Larry Fitzgerald WR Probable Not Injury Related
Cory Redding DT Probable Shoulder
Frostee Rucker DT Probable Foot
LaMarr Woodley LB Probable Chest
Justin Bethel CB Probable Foot
Brittan Golden WR Probable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 18
–
ARI 26

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:30 FG BAL (5:30) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – ARI 0
  • Q1 04:11 TD ARI (4:11) 23-C.Johnson right end for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 3 – ARI 6
  • Q2 04:00 TD BAL (4:00) 29-J.Forsett up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – ARI 7
  • Q2 01:05 TD ARI (1:05) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left to 15-M.Floyd for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – ARI 13
  • Q3 09:51 FG ARI (9:51) 7-C.Catanzaro 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. BAL 10 – ARI 17
  • Q3 02:31 FG ARI (2:31) 7-C.Catanzaro 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. BAL 10 – ARI 20
  • Q4 08:13 TD ARI (8:13) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 12-JO.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – ARI 26
  • Q4 04:31 TD BAL (4:31) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – ARI 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 62%

    (10:58) 7-C.Catanzaro 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (8:58) 2-D.Butler punts 51 yards to BAL 26, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 10-J.Ross. PENALTY on BAL-25-T.Walker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 26.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (3:01) 2-D.Butler punts 55 yards to BAL 16, Center-82-M.Leach. 10-J.Ross to BAL 24 for 8 yards (28-J.Bethel). FUMBLES (28-J.Bethel), RECOVERED by ARI-28-J.Bethel at BAL 25. 28-J.Bethel to BAL 25 for no gain (10-J.Ross). PENALTY on BAL-27-A.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at BAL 25. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (:05) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to ARI 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-B.Golden MUFFS catch, recovered by ARI-28-J.Bethel at ARI 39. 28-J.Bethel to ARI 39 for no gain (50-A.McClellan).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (9:51) 7-C.Catanzaro 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%

    (6:36) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to ARI 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 13 for 8 yards (41-A.Levine).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (2:31) 7-C.Catanzaro 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (14:24) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to ARI 21, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson. BAL-25-T.Walker was injured during the play.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:50) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to ARI 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-P.Peterson MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at ARI 29.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:40) 2-D.Butler punt is BLOCKED by 27-A.Jackson, Center-82-M.Leach, RECOVERED by BAL-43-R.Mostert at ARI 5. 43-R.Mostert to ARI 1 for 4 yards (26-R.Johnson). Penalty on ARI-82-M.Leach, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 16 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:00) 2-D.Butler punts 38 yards to BAL 24, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 80-C.Gillmore to BAL 42 for 9 yards (22-T.Jefferson).