4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 2-D.Butler punts 55 yards to BAL 16, Center-82-M.Leach. 10-J.Ross to BAL 24 for 8 yards (28-J.Bethel). FUMBLES (28-J.Bethel), RECOVERED by ARI-28-J.Bethel at BAL 25. 28-J.Bethel to BAL 25 for no gain (10-J.Ross). PENALTY on BAL-27-A.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at BAL 25. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.67 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP