4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to ARI 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 13 for 8 yards (41-A.Levine).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.04 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.47 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model