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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 3

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 7-C.Catanzaro 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +3.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.25 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 3, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP