4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Arizona Cardinals 26

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to ARI 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-P.Peterson MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at ARI 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model