Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 26 – Baltimore Ravens 18

(2:00) 2-D.Butler punts 38 yards to BAL 24, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.58 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -2.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model