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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 18 – Arizona Cardinals 26

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 80-C.Gillmore to BAL 42 for 9 yards (22-T.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.87 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -0.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model