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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 89

Cleveland Browns 3 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 8-A.Lee punts 51 yards to LA 38, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Austin to LA 49 for 11 yards (58-C.Kirksey; 33-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.47 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 89, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 46, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP