CLE @ STL — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Pettine

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HC Jeff Fisher

Sunday 2015-10-25 · 13:00 Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CLE

49.7%

STL

50.3%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

LA offense: -0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
Nick Foles (LA): -0.218 EPA/dropback in prior starts
CLE offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
LA on 7 more days rest than CLE
Indoors — weather neutralised
LA defense: -0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
CLE defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 19

–

STL 21

Projected margin: STL by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CLE

Joe Haden CB Out Concussion

Rob Housler TE Out Hamstring

Tashaun Gipson S Doubtful Ankle

Tank Carder LB Questionable Shoulder

John Hughes DE Questionable Knee

Marlon Moore WR Questionable Hamstring

Craig Robertson LB Questionable Ankle

Danny Shelton DT Questionable Knee

Gary Barnidge TE Probable Ankle

Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow

Nate Orchard LB Probable Groin

STL

Chris Long DE Out Knee

Alec Ogletree LB Out Ankle

Tre Mason RB Questionable Ankle

Tavon Austin WR Questionable Thigh

Lance Kendricks TE Questionable Hand

Janoris Jenkins CB Probable Concussion

Robert Quinn DE Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 6

–

STL 24

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 12:06 TD LA (12:06) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short left to 18-T.Gabriel to CLE 16 for -3 yards (21-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (21-J.Jenkins), RECOVERED by LA-23-R.McLeod at CLE 20. 23-R.McLeod for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – STL 6
Q1 07:40 FG LA (7:40) 4-G.Zuerlein 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. CLE 0 – STL 10
Q2 14:07 FG CLE (14:07) 6-T.Coons 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 3 – STL 10
Q3 11:53 FG CLE (11:53) 6-T.Coons 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 6 – STL 10
Q3 02:20 TD LA (2:20) 30-T.Gurley left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – STL 16
Q4 08:18 TD LA (8:18) 30-T.Gurley right end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – STL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LA 4th & 11 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(13:29) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to CLE 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-T.Benjamin pushed ob at CLE 37 for 25 yards (6-J.Hekker). PENALTY on CLE-30-I.Campbell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 16.
Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 21

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 89%

(7:40) 4-G.Zuerlein 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 7

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP

p(convert) 51% p(FG) 97%

(14:07) 6-T.Coons 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.
Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(11:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to CLE 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-15-B.Marquez.
Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 89

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP

p(convert) 55%

(9:48) 8-A.Lee punts 51 yards to LA 38, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Austin to LA 49 for 11 yards (58-C.Kirksey; 33-J.Poyer).
Q2 LA 4th & 15 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(9:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to CLE 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.
Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(8:07) 8-A.Lee punts 51 yards to LA 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 41 for 4 yards (24-J.Bademosi).
Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 43

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 46%

(1:05) 8-A.Lee punts 31 yards to LA 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.
Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 45

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 41%

(:09) 4-G.Zuerlein 63 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%

(11:53) 6-T.Coons 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.
Q3 LA 4th & 17 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 20% p(FG) 93%

(8:36) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 24%

(4:23) 8-A.Lee punts 41 yards to LA 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.
Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 53

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 24%

(15:00) 8-A.Lee punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.
Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(13:26) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to CLE 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-T.Benjamin ran ob at CLE 21 for no gain.
Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 61 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(3:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to CLE 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-15-B.Marquez, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 30.
Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 38 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 59%

(1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel scrambles up the middle to LA 33 for 5 yards (20-L.Joyner).