Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to CLE 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-T.Benjamin pushed ob at CLE 37 for 25 yards (6-J.Hekker). PENALTY on CLE-30-I.Campbell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.83 EP
69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model