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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 6 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel scrambles up the middle to LA 33 for 5 yards (20-L.Joyner).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.48 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP