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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 60

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(14:04) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to MIA 5, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Landry to MIA 12 for 7 yards (50-A.Dent).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.69 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 19, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model