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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Joe Philbin
Sunday 2015-10-25 · 13:00 Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

HOU
52.9%
MIA
47.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: Ryan Tannehill (MIA) -0.070 vs Brian Hoyer (HOU) +0.260 EPA/dropback
  • MIA offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 22
–
MIA 21
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

HOU

Kareem Jackson CB Out Ankle
Benardrick McKinney LB Out Concussion
Cecil Shorts WR Out Hamstring
Brandon Brooks G Questionable Toe
Jadeveon Clowney LB Questionable Ankle
Quintin Demps S Questionable Hamstring
Oday Aboushi G Probable Toe
Alfred Blue RB Probable Toe
Duane Brown T Probable Hand
Brian Cushing LB Probable Ankle
Akeem Dent LB Probable Hamstring
Arian Foster RB Probable Groin
Jonathan Grimes RB Probable Hamstring
Andre Hal S Probable Shin
Ben Jones C Probable Toe
Derek Newton T Probable Knee
Brian Peters LB Probable Hamstring
Chris Polk RB Probable Knee
Nate Washington WR Probable Hamstring

MIA

Brice McCain CB Doubtful Knee
Zackary Bowman CB Probable Not Injury Related
Brent Grimes CB Probable Knee
Reshad Jones S Probable Shoulder
Matt Moore QB Probable Nose
Kenny Stills WR Probable Back
Cameron Wake DE Probable Hamstring
Branden Albert T Probable Hamstring
A.J. Francis DT Probable Back
Jordan Phillips DT Probable Ankle
Mike Pouncey C Probable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 26
–
MIA 44

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:06 TD MIA (11:06) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 18-R.Matthews for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIA 6
  • Q1 07:00 TD MIA (7:00) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 14-J.Landry for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. HOU 0 – MIA 13
  • Q1 03:11 TD MIA (3:11) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 14-J.Landry for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIA 20
  • Q2 14:23 TD MIA (14:23) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 26-L.Miller for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIA 27
  • Q2 14:03 TD MIA (14:03) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left intended for 87-C.Fiedorowicz INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at HOU 23. 20-R.Jones for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIA 34
  • Q2 03:02 TD MIA (3:02) 26-L.Miller right tackle for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – MIA 41
  • Q3 08:28 TD HOU (8:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left to 23-A.Foster for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – MIA 41
  • Q3 01:51 TD HOU (1:51) (Shotgun) 23-A.Foster up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-50-O.Vernon, Defensive Offside, declined. HOU 12 – MIA 41
  • Q4 11:36 TD HOU (11:36) (No Huddle) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left to 85-N.Washington for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 19 – MIA 41
  • Q4 07:46 FG MIA (7:46) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. HOU 20 – MIA 44
  • Q4 04:04 TD HOU (4:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short right to 85-N.Washington for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 26 – MIA 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:04) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to MIA 5, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Landry to MIA 12 for 7 yards (50-A.Dent).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:38) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to MIA 28, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (8:03) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to HOU 10, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-28-Bo.McCain.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:04) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 33 yards to HOU 50, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-45-J.Prosch.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:20) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 35 yards to MIA 48, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Landry to HOU 45 for 7 yards (46-J.Weeks).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:17) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Landry to MIA 17 for -8 yards (52-B.Peters; 35-E.Pleasant).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:26) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to MIA 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Landry to MIA 26 for 4 yards (31-C.James).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 41%

    (8:15) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-52-K.Sheppard, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 20.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%

    (3:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short left to 41-J.Grimes (28-Bo.McCain).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:07) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 55 yards to HOU 17, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 24 for 7 yards (30-Z.Bowman).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:38) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 50 yards to MIA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-R.Matthews to MIA 20 for 9 yards (31-C.James).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:48) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to HOU 18, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (14:16) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 50 yards to HOU 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 37 for 14 yards (46-N.Hewitt; 31-M.Thomas).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 58%

    (7:46) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.