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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 74

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 35

What Actually Happened

(12:26) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to MIA 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Landry to MIA 26 for 4 yards (31-C.James).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.36 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model