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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 41

Miami Dolphins 35 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:15) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-52-K.Sheppard, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.83 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP