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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 41 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:07) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 55 yards to HOU 17, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 24 for 7 yards (30-Z.Bowman).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model