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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 61

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 41

What Actually Happened

(10:38) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 50 yards to MIA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-R.Matthews to MIA 20 for 9 yards (31-C.James).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.39 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model