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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 41 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(5:48) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to HOU 18, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.80 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model