Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 41 – Houston Texans 13

(14:16) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 50 yards to HOU 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 37 for 14 yards (46-N.Hewitt; 31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.57 EP
47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model