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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 35

Miami Dolphins 41 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(7:46) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.09 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model