Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 83

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

(9:38) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to MIA 28, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 83, worth -5.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model