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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 34

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.87 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model