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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2015-10-25 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

MIN
49.4%
DET
50.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: -0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DET: Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.018 vs Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) -0.104 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
DET 23
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

MIN

Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
Justin Trattou DE Out Foot
Matt Asiata RB Probable Rib
T.J. Clemmings T Probable Knee
Everson Griffen DE Probable Illness
Charles Johnson WR Probable Rib
Captain Munnerlyn CB Probable Thumb
Terence Newman CB Probable Ankle
Adrian Peterson RB Probable Finger
Jarius Wright WR Probable Hand

DET

DeAndre Levy LB Out Hip
Brandon Pettigrew TE Out Knee
Josh Wilson CB Questionable Concussion
Joique Bell RB Probable Ankle
Josh Bynes LB Probable Hip
Eric Ebron TE Probable Knee
James Ihedigbo S Probable Quadricep
Jason Jones DE Probable Neck
Sam Martin P Probable left Knee
Haloti Ngata DT Probable Calf
Tahir Whitehead LB Probable Shoulder
Calvin Johnson WR Probable Ankle
Theo Riddick RB Probable Groin
Golden Tate WR Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 28
–
DET 19

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:15 TD DET (11:15) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 81-C.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 03:51 FG MIN (3:51) 3-B.Walsh 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 3 – DET 7
  • Q1 01:30 TD DET (1:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – DET 13
  • Q2 11:15 FG MIN (11:15) 3-B.Walsh 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 6 – DET 14
  • Q2 05:08 FG DET (5:08) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. MIN 6 – DET 17
  • Q2 01:54 TD MIN (1:54) 74-A.Shepherd reported in as eligible. 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [59-T.Whitehead]. MIN 12 – DET 17
  • Q2 00:04 FG MIN (:04) 3-B.Walsh 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 15 – DET 17
  • Q3 10:27 TD MIN (10:27) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 21 – DET 17
  • Q3 06:11 FG MIN (6:11) 3-B.Walsh 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 25 – DET 17
  • Q4 14:13 FG MIN (14:13) 3-B.Walsh 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 28 – DET 17
  • Q4 01:03 SAF DET (1:03) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke right end ran ob in End Zone for -6 yards, SAFETY. Penalty on MIN-19-A.Thielen, Offensive Holding, declined. MIN 28 – DET 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 11 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 91%

    (3:51) 3-B.Walsh 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 16 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 26%

    (9:18) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to MIN 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 17 for 7 yards (26-D.Carey).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 18 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 68%

    (5:08) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 13 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:25) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to MIN 30, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 38 for 8 yards (83-T.Wright). PENALTY on DET-26-D.Carey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 38.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 18 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 71%

    (:04) 3-B.Walsh 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (8:22) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to MIN 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

    (6:11) 3-B.Walsh 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 19 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (4:17) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to MIN 39, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 47 for 8 yards (95-B.Copeland).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (14:13) 3-B.Walsh 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 14 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:22) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to MIN 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:52) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to DET 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 15-G.Tate to DET 34 for 9 yards (19-A.Thielen).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 28%

    (3:28) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to DET 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 25-T.Riddick.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 94 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:03) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke right end ran ob in End Zone for -6 yards, SAFETY. Penalty on MIN-19-A.Thielen, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 64%

    (:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 16-L.Moore.