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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 80

Detroit Lions 17 – Minnesota Vikings 12

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to MIN 30, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 38 for 8 yards (83-T.Wright). PENALTY on DET-26-D.Carey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 37, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model