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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 33

Minnesota Vikings 12 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(:04) 3-B.Walsh 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.76 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model