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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 51

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to DET 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.91 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP