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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 1
Detroit Lions 17 – Minnesota Vikings 28
What Actually Happened
(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 25-T.Riddick.
The Three Options
GO
+3.73 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.16 EP
- 39% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 1, worth -0.14 EP
KICK
+2.17 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT
-0.39 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
