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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 36

Detroit Lions 19 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 16-L.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +0.92 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EP