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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 19

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 3-B.Walsh 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.36 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model