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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 54

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 7-S.Bradford scrambles right end to PHI 48 for 2 yards (41-R.Harper; 97-M.Addison).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.31 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model