4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
PHI Away

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Chip Kelly
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2015-10-25 · 20:30 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

PHI
31.8%
CAR
68.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.145 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 19
–
CAR 26
Projected margin: CAR by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

PHI

Nelson Agholor WR Out Ankle
Kiko Alonso LB Out Knee
Brandon Bair DE Questionable Groin
Riley Cooper WR Questionable Knee
Mychal Kendricks LB Questionable Hamstring
DeMeco Ryans LB Questionable Hamstring
Josh Huff WR Probable Knee

CAR

Richie Brockel TE Out Hamstring
Dwan Edwards DT Out Ankle
Shaq Thompson LB Out Knee
Daryl Williams T Out Knee
Jared Allen DE Probable Back
A.J. Klein LB Probable Concussion
Teddy Williams CB Probable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 16
–
CAR 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:28 TD CAR (9:28) (Shotgun) 35-M.Tolbert up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – CAR 6
  • Q2 05:47 FG PHI (5:47) 6-C.Sturgis 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 3 – CAR 7
  • Q2 03:39 TD CAR (3:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. #79 Chris Scott reports as eligible PHI 3 – CAR 13
  • Q2 00:08 FG PHI (:08) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 6 – CAR 14
  • Q3 11:58 TD CAR (11:58) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 35-M.Tolbert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – CAR 20
  • Q3 09:43 TD PHI (9:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-R.Mathews up the middle for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 12 – CAR 21
  • Q3 05:51 FG PHI (5:51) 6-C.Sturgis 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 16 – CAR 21
  • Q4 09:04 FG CAR (9:04) 9-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. PHI 16 – CAR 24
  • Q4 00:23 FG CAR (:23) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. PHI 16 – CAR 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 16 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:08) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to CAR 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn. PENALTY on PHI-53-N.Goode, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 13.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 16 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 32%

    (5:04) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to CAR 11, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 14 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:48) 8-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to PHI 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 11 for 2 yards (42-C.Jones).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (12:28) 7-S.Bradford scrambles right end to PHI 48 for 2 yards (41-R.Harper; 97-M.Addison).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 28%

    (10:20) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to CAR 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (8:16) 8-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to PHI 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 68%

    (5:47) 6-C.Sturgis 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:59) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to CAR 30, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (:08) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (5:51) 6-C.Sturgis 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 39%

    (1:39) 8-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to PHI 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 73%

    (12:02) 6-C.Sturgis 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (9:04) 9-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 15 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:06) 8-D.Jones punts 54 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 24 for 5 yards (47-T.Burton).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 28%

    (3:18) 8-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 84 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass incomplete short left to 19-M.Austin.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

    (:23) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.