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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 51

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to CAR 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model