4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 65

Carolina Panthers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 8-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to PHI 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.99 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 23, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP