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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 11

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(:08) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.22 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model