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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 46

Carolina Panthers 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 8-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to PHI 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.10 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model