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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 17

Carolina Panthers 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 9-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.32 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model