Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 73

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Carolina Panthers 24

(7:06) 8-D.Jones punts 54 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 24 for 5 yards (47-T.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.82 EP
74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model