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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to CAR 11, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.58 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.47 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model