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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(:48) 8-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to PHI 9, Center-44-J.Jansen. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 11 for 2 yards (42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.49 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model