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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 3

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP