PIT @ KC — 4th & Data

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Kansas City Chiefs

2-5 HC Andy Reid

Sunday 2015-10-25 · 13:00 ET Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

PIT

80.0%

20.0%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

Landry Jones (PIT): +0.927 EPA/dropback in prior starts (PIT starting Landry Jones in place of Michael Vick)
PIT offense: +0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
PIT defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
KC defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
KC offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PIT 25 18–32

–

KC 20 13–27

Projected margin: PIT by 5 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

PIT

Will Allen S Out Ankle

Stephon Tuitt DE Out Knee

Michael Vick QB Out Hamstring

Cortez Allen CB Questionable Knee

Ben Roethlisberger QB Questionable Knee

Antwon Blake CB Probable Thumb

William Gay CB Probable Not Injury Related

James Harrison LB Probable Not Injury Related

Jarvis Jones LB Probable Hip

Ryan Shazier LB Probable Shoulder

Matt Spaeth TE Probable Not Injury Related

KC

Mike Devito DE Out Concussion

Ramik Wilson LB Doubtful Knee

Tamba Hali LB Questionable Knee

Jeremy Maclin WR Questionable Concussion

Joshua Mauga LB Questionable Groin

Dontari Poe DT Questionable Ankle

Husain Abdullah S Probable Biceps

Justin Houston LB Probable Elbow

Travis Kelce TE Probable Facial Laceration

Cairo Santos K Probable right Foot

Alex Smith QB Probable right Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 13

–

KC 23

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:51 FG KC (8:51) 5-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. PIT 0 – KC 3
Q1 01:03 FG PIT (1:03) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – KC 3
Q2 09:00 FG KC (9:00) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. PIT 3 – KC 6
Q2 01:05 FG KC (1:05) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. PIT 3 – KC 9
Q3 04:27 TD KC (4:27) 35-C.West up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – KC 15
Q3 01:47 TD PIT (1:47) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass deep left to 10-M.Bryant for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. PIT 9 – KC 16
Q4 10:22 FG PIT (10:22) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 13 – KC 16
Q4 05:17 TD KC (5:17) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 17-C.Conley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – KC 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PIT 4th & 13 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(13:08) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to KC 16, Center-60-G.Warren. 13-D.Thomas pushed ob at KC 41 for 25 yards (4-J.Berry).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

(8:51) 5-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 17

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 92%

(3:16) 34-De.Williams up the middle to KC 14 for 3 yards (29-E.Berry; 96-J.Howard).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 6

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

(1:03) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 3

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

(9:00) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 32

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 69%

(4:50) 34-De.Williams up the middle to KC 32 for no gain (55-D.Ford).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 9

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

(1:05) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 36

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 59%

(:11) 5-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(13:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to PIT 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 46

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 33%

(11:41) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to KC 3, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 91

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(10:40) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to PIT 38, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(14:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to PIT 26, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-A.Brown to PIT 28 for 2 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 PIT 4th & 15 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%

(10:22) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
See the full breakdown →

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