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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2015-10-25 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

PIT
75.8%
KC
24.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Landry Jones (PIT): +0.927 EPA/dropback in prior starts (PIT starting Landry Jones in place of Michael Vick)
  • PIT offense: +0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • KC offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 25
–
KC 20
Projected margin: PIT by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

PIT

Will Allen S Out Ankle
Stephon Tuitt DE Out Knee
Michael Vick QB Out Hamstring
Cortez Allen CB Questionable Knee
Ben Roethlisberger QB Questionable Knee
Antwon Blake CB Probable Thumb
William Gay CB Probable Not Injury Related
James Harrison LB Probable Not Injury Related
Jarvis Jones LB Probable Hip
Ryan Shazier LB Probable Shoulder
Matt Spaeth TE Probable Not Injury Related

KC

Mike Devito DE Out Concussion
Ramik Wilson LB Doubtful Knee
Tamba Hali LB Questionable Knee
Jeremy Maclin WR Questionable Concussion
Joshua Mauga LB Questionable Groin
Dontari Poe DT Questionable Ankle
Husain Abdullah S Probable Biceps
Justin Houston LB Probable Elbow
Travis Kelce TE Probable Facial Laceration
Cairo Santos K Probable right Foot
Alex Smith QB Probable right Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 13
–
KC 23

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:51 FG KC (8:51) 5-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. PIT 0 – KC 3
  • Q1 01:03 FG PIT (1:03) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – KC 3
  • Q2 09:00 FG KC (9:00) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. PIT 3 – KC 6
  • Q2 01:05 FG KC (1:05) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. PIT 3 – KC 9
  • Q3 04:27 TD KC (4:27) 35-C.West up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – KC 15
  • Q3 01:47 TD PIT (1:47) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass deep left to 10-M.Bryant for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. PIT 9 – KC 16
  • Q4 10:22 FG PIT (10:22) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 13 – KC 16
  • Q4 05:17 TD KC (5:17) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 17-C.Conley for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – KC 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 13 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:08) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to KC 16, Center-60-G.Warren. 13-D.Thomas pushed ob at KC 41 for 25 yards (4-J.Berry).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

    (8:51) 5-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 92%

    (3:16) 34-De.Williams up the middle to KC 14 for 3 yards (29-E.Berry; 96-J.Howard).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (1:03) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (9:00) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 69%

    (4:50) 34-De.Williams up the middle to KC 32 for no gain (55-D.Ford).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (1:05) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 59%

    (:11) 5-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to PIT 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 33%

    (11:41) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to KC 3, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:40) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to PIT 38, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to PIT 26, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-A.Brown to PIT 28 for 2 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 15 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%

    (10:22) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.